At the beginning of this offseason I planned on writing about the Toronto Blue Jays and their various moves. I did an offseason primer and then was going to make a post every time they made a big signing or trade. I got worried that since something could go down at any time without much notice I would have to rush to my laptop and type something up if I wasn’t at work. Then when I started doing my Oscar previews I was reviewing 3-4 films a week. I had bite off a bit more than I could chew as it seemed every night I had to be watching a movie and reviewing one. I was paranoid something would come up at the most inopportune time and I wouldn’t be able to do an analysis. Well opening day is upon us and the only major move the team made was releasing the terri-awful (I just made it up, deal with it) catcher and whipping boy JP Arencibia and signed the modest upgrade Dionner Navarro. There were a lot of rumors surrounding pitchers that they almost signed and a few trades that ended up being called off for various reasons, but no real additions. There are a few storylines that will be interesting to follow so bear with me.
- With a rotation consisting of RA Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, Drew Hutchison and Dustin McGowan, is it enough to compete in sports toughest division? Yes and no. Look if Dickey comes close to his Cy Young capabilities he had in his last few years as a Mets pitcher we are the envy of most teams, he started out slowly last year but still was serviceable and then got a lot better as the season went on. Dickey started out the season hurt and took awhile for him to get his groove back. A strong start is key here for him. Morrow needs to prove that he is healthy to live up to his enormous potential, and he is a key member who the season could hinge on. We all know what to expect from Buehrle after seeing his workhorse capabilities for the past 30 years (or so it seems) and as long as this isn’t the year he breaks down, we are golden because #3-4 pitchers like him are very valuable and don’t let anyone tell you he isn’t worth his contract either. Hutch is coming off Tommy John surgery, which made him miss all of last year. He has had a killer spring training and if he continues where he left off in 2012 this 23 year old has a very bright future as a #2-3 pitcher. Remember McGowan? He used to be one of the most promising pitchers back in 2007-2008. Unfortunately he has injured just about every part of his body and hasn’t started a Major League game since then. He is determined to be a starter and I say if his arm is fine now, feed him to the wolves. If his arm falls off like a leper, then we know he gave it his all. We don’t need a Chris Carpenter situation where we lose him to another team on waivers and he actually is healthy. If ole Dusty regains that wicked fastball then he’s basically found money. If these guys either falter or get injured there is Todd Redmond and Esmil Rogers in the bullpen, along with JA Happ and Rickey Romero in the minors. If all else fails, or if they are pounding on the door to come in, top prospects Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez could step in and help save the day. While the Jays don’t boast the best starting five, they have a bit of depth and are at least serviceable. While it would have been amazing if they Jays signed either Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana, if you squint hard enough you can understand maybe why they Jays didn’t do much if you believe they know more about their rotation than we do.
- Our batting lineup 1-7 is actually really good, like elite good. The biggest reason why last season went off the rails so quickly was the amount of injuries but if the lineup stays on the field they will mash with the likes of the Red Sox and Dodgers. Remember how Jose Bautista hit 50 home runs two years in a row? How Edwin Encarnation is now one of the most feared and patient hitter in the game? What about how only two years ago Melky Cabrera was almost the NL MVP and Jose Reyes won the batting title back in 2011? How about that Adam Lind when facing only right handed pitchers crushes the ball better than most other hitters or that Colby Rasmus finally broke out in a huge way last year even while striking out a boat load more than any hitter should? This isn’t even getting in Brett Lawrie and his enormous potential. While he so far has been underwhelming in the past two years if he starts to figure things out combined with his fantastic defense, things could really look good for him. Like I said this all hinges on their health as most of these guys spent some time on the disabled list last year and that won’t fly this year if they want to compete.
- Unfortunately the Jays have two black hole spots in their batting order, which could make for some short innings twice a game. While batting statistics from the catching position and second base set the bar pretty low it doesn’t mean you want an automatic out every time they come up to bat. While Dioner Navarro isn’t a bad catcher by any measure, they Jays could have signed a big name like Brain McCann (now with the Yankees) or Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Marlins). Hopefully just getting out Arencibia and his automatic strikeout will be enough. They Jays could have done something with the second base problem; sadly they stuck with Ryan Goins. Goins is a fantastic defensive player but he couldn’t hit at AAA and things don’t get any easier facing such minor league fodder like CC Sabathia, Jon Lester and David Price. If he can manage a .250 average and play world-class defense, it will be manageable with him in the lineup. The other option of course is waiting until after opening day and sign the willing to convert to 2B Stephen Drew, who while is an injury risk, can rake amongst the best two baggers in the game. But that doesn’t seem likely, so either the Jays suck up the black hole in the 8 and 9 spot and hope everyone else pulls more than their own weight, or they will need to find help outside sooner rather than later.
- Is this team better off defensively compared to last years cluster mess? Ignoring offense here for a moment, yes they are but it is contingent on the health of the team. Navarro is an upgrade behind the dish by actually being able to throw runners out, and Goins will be far superior compared to Bonafacio and Izturis from last year. Cabrera should be a much better player this year now that he doesn’t have a tumor in his back, which clearly affected his play on both sides of the plate. The fact that Melky has played some innings in CF shows the team believes he is getting back to the player who Kansas City had several years ago. Jose Reyes has never been considered a strong defender, but he is not a liability there and I think being in between Lawrie who has shown he has the potential to be a plus defender and Goins an actual plus defender will make Reyes look great. Colby Rasmus doesn’t have the best range in CF, but his natural athleticism and speed more than makes up for any bad reads he makes on fly balls. Bautista doesn’t really have the range or speed but he has a cannon of an arm that makes runners always think twice about trying to take an extra bag. Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnation aren’t known for being all that good defensively either, but they can manage playing 1B without too many brain farts.
- Remember how last year the Jays sent two relievers to the All Star game, well the same bullpen that was amazing last year is back again. To start the season the team is having an eight-man bullpen, which is weird until you understand they don’t want to lose a player on waivers by trying to send them down to the minors. Also with Morrow and McGowan only recently getting fully healthy there is the potential that they will have innings limits early on or could aggravate old injuries. Sergio Santos looks to finally prove that he is a dominant pitcher with that killer fastball he possesses. Casey Janssen’s declining velocity is a bit of a concern but he was never a hard thrower anyways. This group of guys that also includes Brett Cecil, Steve Delebar and Aaron Loup were all fantastic until ¾’s of the way through the season when they started to get used too much, due to all the injuries to the starters and their poor replacements. Relievers are a dime a dozen, but this group is solid and should not even be a concern for any fan.
- Does General Manager Alex Anthopoulos deserve to be fired by his lack of inactivity if the team is out of the playoff race by mid-season? This is a tricky one because up until this offseason I have never had more faith in a front office like I did with AA. While people think he overpaid for the two massive trades he made last year with the Mets and Marlins, it was merely the cost of doing business. All along he stated he would collect prospect capital then flip them for major league ready players. While it hurt to lose top prospects Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino, the trades instantly made the Jays favourites to win the World Series. Unfortunately things didn’t turn out that way, but this team is basically the same as last years so if things go right health wise, they should be in the hunt this year. Last years trades were perfectly fine assuming that if the Jays didn’t make the playoffs they would have to continue to add solid pieces this offseason. They didn’t though. They really needed to sign a mid-tier starter to create much more favorable depth. They needed to sign a second baseman so they don’t have a black hole hitting at the bottom of the lineup. I feel this was not for a lack of trying as they reportedly were very close on a lot of signings and trades, but this is a rich franchise and they had no excuse. Just like how AA’s predecessor JP Ricciardi was allowed to spend freely then the purse strings were cut off from him it seems like Rogers’ is doing the same thing to their new man which is setting a scary precedent. Does Rogers even care about winning? I would hate to lose AA as a GM, but if it wasn’t Rogers who clamped up, then he miscalculated his plan and may have to go.
- Last year the Jays came in 5th in baseball’s hardest division, the American League East. The division did not get any easier this year. Gone are the days where Baltimore was a laughing stock organization, and it has been so long now since Tampa Bay was the worst team in baseball it’s easy to forget they ever had that title (so cheer up Astros fans, it won’t last forever!). While New York is a little to old to be a true World Series contender, signing Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka and stealing away Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury makes them able to withstand the loses of Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson in a way not many other teams could. I try to black out last years season from my memory especially since the hated Boston Red Sox won the World Series in their first year with former Jays manager John Farrell leading them. While last year they over performed the talent they had to win the division, they are by no means a bad team and should expect to be a contender throughout the year. All this to say, I can make an argument for the Jays finishing anywhere between second and fifth place in the group and you won’t look at me like a total nut job.
I feel like that gives a pretty good overview of what to expect for the season, at the same time I clearly am very optimistic about everything. Do I think the Jays will be a contender? Probably, but I’m still scared to admit it out loud to myself. Hopefully if things start to sour quickly on the season, they can either trade (or sign Stephen Drew) for some help or hopefully the guys seasoning in the minors can step up in a big way. For sake of you all able to laugh at my predictions here is how I see the AL East shaking out; Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles and Yankees. Hopefully coming in third is enough to contend for the second wild card spot though. What do you think about the upcoming season? Also I just went over 2000 words without once mentioning Josh Johnson… oh wait.
